Black Death Swan Dive
I like word play. Mixing phrases, words, tenses, and meanings into new combinations is historically a pursuit usually reserved for poets. It extends more recently to song writers and rappers. Subject matter doesn’t matter when well written. The grasp is the goal. Subtle nuance, double entendre, mix and match make my day. In this case, I find my self pondering, combining, economic theory, worldwide pandemic, and a water sport.
A black swan is an economic idea that refers to an unexpected or surprise event that has an extraordinary impact. It’s also a mediocre movie starring Natalie Portman, but that’s not relevant here. Recent examples of Black Swans for me include smart phones or 9/11. The black death is a common nickname for the plaque that struck the world in the 1300’s killing a 100 million or so. While a swan dive is technically a front dive straight position, calling it swan dive makes it much more graceful sounding.
Why are these three unrelated things swimming around in my noggin? Because right now the global economic stability is standing atop a ten meter platform over a drained pool.
The mix of over indebted people, countries, and industries coupled with malinvestment in our just-in-time, dog-eat-dog world has placed it at the edge. Ironically it’s likely a people-eat-dog country that will push it off. But it could have been Brexit or European migration just as easily. The plummet will be easy to track by watching the stock market graphs over the next few months. There will be pauses and a hiccup up or two, but those will be the drowning gasps of central planned economies and central banks fighting the inevitable.
The die was cast with globalization, labor arbitrage, and over productivity. There is a worldwide shortage of slack in our systems which will cause our systems to fall like dominoes. Weak people people, companies, and countries will feel the effect first and worst, but it will harm. The least losers will be the well prepared and those that panic first.
I’m not yelling fire in the theatre, but I’m slowly getting up from my seat near the illuminated exit sign.